How do I get ahead in the stock market?

[RichardtheFrog]

The price of stocks already reflects people's future expectations. Therefore, how can I use data about the future of the economy to my advantage? I only have access to the same data that everyone else does.

[Freelancier]

In fact, you have less data than the big money has.

There are whole books written about how to make money in the stock market. The question is: which one is right? That's up to you to decide.

[RichardtheFrog]

If you had to pick one stock right now, what would it be and why?

[Freelancier]

I wouldn't, there's nothing I track that I think is undervalued. But that's me and my investing criteria. You get to make up your own.

[RichardtheFrog]

I do have a bit of my own criteria. I try to determine when the economy is about to expand and when it is about to recess. When it is about to expand, I would go with cyclical stocks and commodity futures of basic materials. When it is going to recess, I would go with precious metals and bonds.

I know what 50% of a stock movement is the movement of the sector.

What do you look at to see if you think something is undervalued?

[tallen]

What are your investment goals? Are you seeking "growth" or "income?" What is your risk tolerance? What is your time horizon? These are all questions that a professional investment advisor would ask you -- questions that you need to be able to answer for yourself even if you are investing on your own.

[RichardtheFrog]

Currently, I am trying to put enough money in a portfolio so that I can use the profits I make to buy groceries. Lol.

So basically I have very little risk tolerance and I would be better off in bonds, I believe.

Or I should just stick to the landlord thing.

[Harold Mansfield]

Currently, I am trying to put enough money in a portfolio so that I can use the profits I make to buy groceries. Lol.

So basically I have very little risk tolerance and I would be better off in bonds, I believe.

Or I should just stick to the landlord thing.
It doesn't work like that. Investments and starting a business take time. There are no fast tracks to success or more income.
You seem to be all over the place looking for a quick hit and you are not going to find it.

[RichardtheFrog]

No, because I only need so much to support myself. I am not looking for a quick hit. I would be happy with "just enough" coming from bonds or something like that.

[billbenson]

I know a guy who invests in stock options. He gets in and out. Last time I talked to him he had 30 profitable weeks in a row. That doesn't mean every trade was profitable though. One week he made $100k. He considered that to be a complete fluke though.

He makes a nice living at it, but it took him years to come up with his strategy and he lost a lot of money during that time frame.

[RichardtheFrog]

Wow. Getting into derivatives seems just too complicated to me. I like to simplify. I am not really willing to put in all the effort to become an expert option trader.

[billbenson]

Richard, it strikes me you are looking for the easy way out in a lot of things including your web site. It doesn't work that way. You need to become an expert in a few things if you want to make money. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but that's just how it works.

[RichardtheFrog]

I am an expert in a lot of things. I have put countless hours of research into this, but I also don't have the time to analyze the financial statements of 100s of companies. It might be worth my time just to put everything into an index fund or a sector fund when I think the economy will expand, and into one or a few bond funds when I think the economy will contract.

I'm trying to do things right, but also to simplify so I don't have to spend countless hours doing it.

[Harold Mansfield]

I am an expert in a lot of things. I have put countless hours of research into this, but I also don't have the time to analyze the financial statements of 100s of companies...

I'm trying to do things right, but also to simplify so I don't have to spend countless hours doing it.

You aren't being realistic. There's no way to simplify it. People who are successful put in the work, the reading, the research. There are no shortcuts.
If you don't have time to learn it, then be honest with yourself that you just don't have the time to do it.

I'll say it till I'm blue in the face and you probably won't get it for years, but there are no shortcuts. Being successful in anything is a LOT of reading and learning. I read more now than I ever did in high school or college. It's every day, all the time. There's always something new I need to read up on. It never ends.

[billbenson]

I
I'm trying to do things right, but also to simplify so I don't have to spend countless hours doing it.

That doesn't work. It takes countless hours for most people.

[RichardtheFrog]

I already have done the reading, which is how I ended up with the investment strategy that I did. When I expect an expansion, put into sector funds. When I expect a contraction, go with bond funds.

But actually, I think I would need a whole lot of money in an account to make the kind of return I could make with being a landlord. I've been looking at the numbers, and if I make 8%, I would need $39,000 to make the same amount.

[billbenson]

I already have done the reading

No you haven't done the reading. You have been reading and self educating but it never stops. These days everything is constantly changing. Look at SEO on Google. Used to be you could do link trading to get on the first page of the SERPS. That doesn't work anymore. You need to keep on top of things.

I haven't had a vacation since 1998. I usually put in 12 hour days, 7 days a week. I spend time with my wife, work out, and work. In the last two years or so I have been cutting back because I'm burned out. Ya, I take a day off here and there, but that's not a vacation.

There are some here who have structured their work so they can take time off. Its industry dependent. But you have selected two things that don't allow for that; investing and web design.

[Harold Mansfield]

I already have done the reading, which is how I ended up with the investment strategy that I did.
I agree with Bill, you haven't "done" the reading and you don't have an investment strategy. You've read a few things and are day dreaming. If you were as educated in the matter as you keep trying to portray, you wouldn't be here asking us questions, you'd be answering them and already doing it.

I'm not saying you aren't welcome to ask questions. I'm saying that you ask them and then act as if you already have all of the answers and you don't.

All of us are IN business and we're smart enough to know that we have to keep learning. So there is no "already done" the reading because the reading never stops.

The best thing that can happen to you is the realization that you don't know anything. Because at least it gives a realistic view of what you need to do, and what you need to learn to go forward.



When I expect an expansion, put into sector funds. When I expect a contraction, go with bond funds.

But actually, I think I would need a whole lot of money in an account to make the kind of return I could make with being a landlord. I've been looking at the numbers, and if I make 8%, I would need $39,000 to make the same amount.

First of all if you were lucky enough to get a return of 8% you would need $488,000 invested in a fund to make $39,040 a year. And that's before any taxes.

Bonds take time to mature. Let's just say to go with the safest bet out there Treasury Bills for which there is no 8% return even on a 30 year. Sticking with your yearly income model, at 0.10% return (today's rate), you'd have to invest $39,000,000 to have a return of $39,000 after 1 year.

Let's say you don't invest in anything and just park your money. Savings accounts are paying 1%. CD's are paying about the same for a 1 year and 2.3% on a 5 year.
So you'd need a significant investment to make a return of just $39,000 a year.

It's great that you're learning, and dreaming. But if you want to get started you need to get realistic and start coming up with a plan that you can actually put together without a miracle so that you can start the journey and put in the work to get where you want to be.

[TAAccounting]

Richard,

As an accountant, I don't do any financial advising. But the last few clients that asked for my "opinion", I told them the following:

Invest in something that is stable, not prone to being undervalued or at a premium, has guaranteed return, and that somebody will always need.

The answer, invest in Ameren UE or Laclede Gas. They are the largest utility companies around in the Midwest, they guarantee their dividend return, they fluctuate according to seasonal usage (which are always predictable), they have spikes that can be known (expanding gas line, natural gas price on the rise, etc), and if they ever go out of business -- well, let's say most people would have a lot more important thing to worry about than their money.

If you are still unsure on how to play the stock market, consider utilizing Investopedia.com as a source and stock simulator.

I hope this helps!

[Create Signature]

[RichardtheFrog]

Are you SURE I haven't done 100s of hours of reading? You're SURE of this? Do you want to know the details of the global soybean trade?

Point is, I don't WANT to spend my time doing that, so I think I'm better off just trying to predict swings in the economy and putting it into funds. Also, probably just stick to the landlord thing anyway.

Yes, I realize bonds give out their coupons every 6 months. And I would only need that $39,000 figure to make what I need if I get 8%.

But actually, investing in mobile homes seems to be promising a better return.

And also, web design is a one-time thing. I never said I planned to be a web designer. I said I planned to make one web site.

[Harold Mansfield]

Are you SURE I haven't done 100s of hours of reading? You're SURE of this? Do you want to know the details of the global soybean trade?

Point is, I don't WANT to spend my time doing that, so I think I'm better off just trying to predict swings in the economy and putting it into funds. Also, probably just stick to the landlord thing anyway.

Yes, I realize bonds give out their coupons every 6 months. And I would only need that $39,000 figure to make what I need if I get 8%.

But actually, investing in mobile homes seems to be promising a better return.

And also, web design is a one-time thing. I never said I planned to be a web designer. I said I planned to make one web site.

OK. I wish you luck with your plan. Let us know how it turns out.

[Fulcrum]

... investment strategy that I did. When I expect an expansion, put into sector funds. When I expect a contraction, go with bond funds.

Out of curiosity, if you had the funds, what would you do given what has been reported in today's market?

[billbenson]

And also, web design is a one-time thing. I never said I planned to be a web designer. I said I planned to make one web site.

Richard, a website is never a one time thing unless you want to be on the 500th page in a Google search. Its going to need to be constantly changing and updating if you want to make money from it. Again, I don't mean to be impolite but your statement reaffirms my opinion that you haven't done your 'ongoing' research.

[Wozcreative]

Richard, a website is never a one time thing unless you want to be on the 500th page in a Google search. Its going to need to be constantly changing and updating if you want to make money from it. Again, I don't mean to be impolite but your statement reaffirms my opinion that you haven't done your 'ongoing' research.


Eh, who cares.. he'll make one html page and that'll be the end of that. No one will see it, and google will burry it somewhere with all the other Wix's of the world.

[RichardtheFrog]

I know all about SEO. And also, I found someone in India who will do the whole thing for $5. Thank you to the person who told me about fiverr.com.

If I had the money right now, I would not put it in any market. I would go with residential real estate.

But if I had to put it in some market right now.....

I would either put it in the primary bond market so it's low risk, or some index fund. I don't have the time or patience to look through the financial statement of 100s of companies.

Or maybe I would learn how to read the Economic Indicator Indices better, and go on Yahoo! Finance where it tells you all the pertinent statistics in an easy to read format. If I had to pick one stock, my strategy would be to pick the sector that I think would work the best, and then pick one company in that sector, maybe based on P/E ratio. I would only ever invest in the stock market when I thought the economy was expanding. I see no point in keeping money is "safe" non-cyclical industries because I might as well have it in a bond fund at that time or even precious metals.

If I had to pick one right now, I would say.... S&P 500 index fund. What about you?

And by residential real estate, I mean MOBILE HOMES. I have done the math and you make just as much on mobile homes as you do on a brick-and-mortar house. The only problem is that the financing is more difficult. I would actually buy a piece of commercially zoned vacant land and start a mobile home park. I would put my own homes on the site, but until it's all full, I would allow people to park their own. The good thing about mobile homes is that the repairs are less. Obviously, you always need to keep some funds for repairs, but with a house, a new roof will cost you $12,000+ and new central A/c will cost you $3000-5000, but you can repair a mobile home roof yourself and a new window A/c unit only costs a few hundred bucks, and I could probably even repair one myself given a little trial and error and a book that I already own. It's simple physics.

And who says I wouldn't update the website? Once the code is there, all I have to do is edit the text. And it really wouldn't require that much editing with the type of site I am creating.

[Harold Mansfield]

I know all about SEO. And also, I found someone in India who will do the whole thing for $5. Thank you to the person who told me about fiverr.com.
.
Again, you keep saying that you "know all about" something and then proceed to prove that you have no idea what you're talking about. If you knew anything about SEO, you would understand why I am giggling at this statement. $5 to India for all of your SEO needs? The only good news there is that you will hopefully only loose $5.

Whatever the subject, you seem to know more about it than the people who are doing it for a living and are trying to give you solid advice.

Can I ask how old you are?

[Fulcrum]

If I had to pick one right now, I would say.... S&P 500 index fund. What about you?

I would have to respectfully disagree. Aside from a few bumps in the road, the stock markets have been in what appears to be a fairly long bull run. If memory serves me correct, most (if not all) North American markets are above 2007/2008 levels. This somewhat scares me because we are constantly bombarded with how bad the economic climate is and leads me to ask the question where is this money coming from that is driving these prices up?

I'm considering moving most/all of my investments into physical assets (real estate, gold & silver bars/bullion, etc).

With regards to repairing AC units, I tried to order parts for one and was refused service because I'm not a qualified AC repair technician. I had figured out what broke and what all needed to be replaced, but because I didn't have the proper papers I was unable to fix the unit.

[billbenson]

Richard, you don't know squat about SEO or websites. Its obvious to most of us. We extrapolate that to investment stuff. You haven't done due diligence in investments or web stuff. You are heading down a bad path for your future. Get your head out of your ass and take advice from people that have been there and done that.

Everybody here has had failures in business, or made wrong decisions. We learn from them and ask for advice the next time around. Are you willing to do that?

[RichardtheFrog]

I don't need to be a super SEO expert to know that it has to be written into the code. Also, all you have to do is watch a 15-minute video on YouTube to know the basics of it. It's best to know some about a lot rather than to specialize in one area. There is no difference between the code written by someone in India than there is written by someone here.

Either way, repairing a window a/c unit is cheaper than a whole central a/c. Perhaps there are online stores that will sell those parts to you. I had that problem with well drilling equipment once.

As far as predicting the stock market or the economy, I will say that I do not know right now.

[Harold Mansfield]

I don't need to be a super SEO expert to know that it has to be written into the code. Also, all you have to do is watch a 15-minute video on YouTube to know the basics of it.

Yep, that's all there is to it. Good luck RichardtheFrog.

[Freelancier]

I know all about SEO.
all you have to do is watch a 15-minute video on YouTube
Whoever called "troll" before....

[billbenson]

I don't need to be a super SEO expert to know that it has to be written into the code. Also, all you have to do is watch a 15-minute video on YouTube to know the basics of it. It's best to know some about a lot rather than to specialize in one area. There is no difference between the code written by someone in India than there is written by someone here.



No, actually what's being written into the code is having a diminishing affect on SEO. Beyond that, how do you know that the video on youtube has accurate information. You don't! That's why the experts in SEO on this forum look at many sources of information and then talk privately amongst themselves to see what is really going on. I'm sure the same is true with investments.

Be it web stuff, SEO, or investment stuff... I give up

[Wozcreative]

ahahaha SEO written into the code ey.... you're talking keywords/meta tags yea? Sounds like you've been watching a lot of ancient videos.

Theres at least 4 different types of SEO that I can think of.. On-site, Off-site and Social Media/Authorship. Common man, you think you can read/watch one thing and think it's true without educating yourself further to find out if those facts are true?

[RichardtheFrog]

Well lucky the guy in India will do it for $5? And the quality is not less, it's just that they are willing to do the same work for less because of the economic conditions. The same reason factory workers in Indonesia accept less wages than people do here.

[Harold Mansfield]

Well lucky the guy in India will do it for $5? And the quality is not less, it's just that they are willing to do the same work for less because of the economic conditions. The same reason factory workers in Indonesia accept less wages than people do here.

Sounds like a great deal. Go for it.

[TTS]

Please post the website when its done.

[Freelancier]

Please post the website when its done.I'm sure you'll be able to find it on page 1 of a google search...

[RichardtheFrog]

I will post it when it's done. I will give testament to the hard-working, industrious people of India.

[Wozcreative]

I will post it when it's done. I will give testament to the hard-working, industrious people of India.

Sounds like you hired a student.. they would take these $5 jobs just to get some projects in as a portfolio. A hard-working industrious person from india who has 3+ experience will charge at least $500 - $700 for something basic. (start to finish). I've hired india before for minor things that I don't have time for and they usually charge me around $250 for something like a footer. But then again I hire someone who has experience and does this full-time.

[RichardtheFrog]

We'll see how it goes. I will definitely post the link on here when it's done.

[Paul]

Are you SURE I haven't done 100s of hours of reading? You're SURE of this? Do you want to know the details of the global soybean trade?
.

Why not trade soybean futures for a living?

It's great that you study and read. That's the start. Now you have to pick something and do it.

[RichardtheFrog]

And in the process, risk losing it all. And "it all" is $0 at this point, but I'm just saying in theory. I know I need to study the weather to do a thing like that.

But there are many other people already studying the weather and have access to all the information that I would get that took more time than I have to acquire. The same problem with stocks.

"Pick something and do it" should not mean the same thing as throwing darts blindfolded.

[Paul]

Yes, there is plenty of information and research. It's just not all free.

Every thing is a risk and usually in direct relation to potential reward. There is no magic, no work, passive way to make a living so eventually you will have to pick something and do it.

[GenX]

Many like Warren Buffet have very simple criteria for investing in a company.
1. do I understand what they do?
2. do I know the person running the company (their track record for success)?
3. Is the stock undervalued?

As a casual investor who has had a success here or there (maybe just dumb luck who knows?) I like to find companies that have a very large market cap and trades at a low price. So say a company with a $100B market cap, trading at $10 a share. They are out there if you look.

With that said, you would have to have a pretty big chunk to invest to be able to "live off" of the profits. The market, especially now is WAY too volatile to make work like that without massive capitol, or true expert (buffet) advice. If you have that kind of money, I would stick to real estate. Apartments, trailer parks, duplexes in military towns work best for me.

[inkogito]

Trading and stock market is very risky. Great players has info sooner than you. You can analyze data and you can make profit but .....be very careful and start with small money, which you can lose.

[TAAccounting]

Richard,

There are several things you need to consider in the stock market. Now, keep in mind, I'm an accountant, not a financial advisor.

1. How much do you know about the industry you are wanting to invest in? Normally, you want to know as much or even more than the salesmen working for that same company.
2. How much of a return are you looking for and how soon? Stock Market has two methods (Short & Long-Term). The majority of people who lose money in the stock markets, are short-term players. Otherwise, you can look at return on dividends and so on.
3. How do you know which stock to invest in? Well, that comes down to your intuition of the business world. If there is a major earthquake, you can best the costs of construction will go up due to rebuilding. If there is an abundance of defective iPhones, you can speculate a spike in Apple's stock.

I would recommend going to Investopedia and playing around on the simulator and reading all the articles they have out there. See the difference between Common Stock and Preferred Stock. How to interpret financial information and so on.